Budget 2024 Countdown – Some Predictions For Homeowners

PM Keir Starmer has already issued a warning that next week’s Budget will be painful… to help fill a ‘£22 billion black hole’ of debt. So, could this Budget be painful for homeowners? In this article, we’ll take a look at what Chancellor Rachel Reeves might be planning.

Capital gains tax

Recent leaks suggest that the Government is unlikely to raise CGT on second homes or buy-to-let properties, despite earlier fears. Ministers appear concerned that any increase could negatively impact the property market, potentially costing the Government more in the long run.

For now, it’s expected that CGT rates will stay the same, which is welcome news for landlords planning to sell in the future. Although your primary home remains exempt, those with additional properties can breathe a sigh of relief, as the current CGT structure looks set to stay.

Inheritance tax

It also seems highly likely there will be changes to inheritance tax (IHT) – the tax your beneficiaries pay when you leave money and other assets to them when you die. In practical terms, changes here are most likely to concern older homeowners who have started thinking about how best to leave their homes and money to their children.

IHT is currently charged at 40% on sums over £325,000 (the IHT threshold). There’s no IHT to pay on anything left to spouses and civil partners, and a higher threshold applies to anything left to children. There are also some reliefs and exemptions for gifts given before you die, gifts to charity and some types of assets like agricultural land and property.

It’s rumoured that the Chancellor could raise the rate of IHT, reduce the tax-free thresholds or reduce or remove some of the allowances.

All these would be very unpopular, however. So, some experts are suggesting the Budget might actually see thresholds, reliefs and exemptions rise, perhaps also with a banding system. This might mean that fewer people pay IHT, but those who do pay more.

A key point to look out for is whether any CGT and IHT changes apply from the day after the Budget (30 October) or from the 2025-26 tax year. If the latter, there will be something of a twilight period, with potentially hundreds of thousands of people looking to put their affairs in order before next April.

Stamp duty

Stamp duty is something that chancellors have loved to tinker with over the last few years. There are very few rumours suggesting possible changes this time round.

Currently, a temporary increase of £125,000 in the stamp duty threshold, introduced in 2022, means it only kicks in at £250,000 or £425,000 for first-time buyers. This concession is due to end in spring 2025. There have been calls for it to be extended, but Labour seem to have dismissed them. Stamp duty increases for second homes, buy-to-lets or overseas buyers seem an outside possibility.

However, at this stage, nothing can be ruled out.

Council tax

Council tax isn’t usually something that is set in the Budget as it’s a local council matter. But there have been rumours that new, higher council tax bands could be introduced for more expensive properties or even a new ‘wealth tax’ for the most expensive. The single-person discount could be withdrawn. A revaluation of homes for council tax purposes could be announced.

Second home or holiday home owners need to be aware that English councils will be able to opt to charge them double council tax from next year. That’s on top of the ending of the favourable tax treatment of furnished holiday lets.

In Scotland or Wales, remember that some tax rules, including stamp duty and council tax, are set by their respective governments, and so are different anyway.

Final thoughts

In her Budget speech the Chancellor will no doubt take full advantage of the recent good news on inflation (down to 1.7% in September). Chances are it won’t make much difference to the tax rises announced – although it may help soften the blow for taxpayers.

Every chancellor likes to pull a few rabbits out of their hat. Surprises that will get them a few rousing cheers or belly laughs from their colleagues. These are almost impossible to predict, so it is just a matter of ‘watch this space’.

If you’d like a summary of what actually happens in the Budget, then check back here on 30 October. We’ll be summarising the measures that affect homeowners in an easy-to-understand way.

Lastly, if you’re concerned about what the Budget might mean for your home and your money, don’t make any hasty decisions. We’d strongly recommend you take advice from an experienced estate agent and a financial adviser.